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Xi'an Ronghai vs Guangxi Lanhang — League Two 2022

Xi'an Ronghai
Xi'an Ronghai
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Guangxi Lanhang
Guangxi Lanhang
9/7/2024League TwoLeague Two · Relegation Round - 4Yan'an Nationwide Fitness Centre Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Xi'an Ronghai44%
×Draw27%
Guangxi Lanhang29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Xi'an Ronghai
1.38
Guangxi Lanhang
1.08

Xi'an Ronghai creates 28% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 40 away

creates per match

Xi'an Ronghai
1.25
Guangxi Lanhang
0.88

allows per match

Xi'an Ronghai
1.28
Guangxi Lanhang
1.50

finishing

Xi'an Ronghai+0.00on par
Guangxi Lanhang+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xi'an Ronghai ↓

Guangxi Lanhang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Xi'an Ronghai or draw
71%
Xi'an Ronghai or Guangxi Lanhang
73%
Draw or Guangxi Lanhang
56%

Winning margin

Xi'an Ronghai wins by 2+
21%
Guangxi Lanhang wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Xi'an Ronghai 1+ goals
75%
Xi'an Ronghai 2+ goals
40%
Xi'an Ronghai 3+ goals
16%
Guangxi Lanhang 1+ goals
66%
Guangxi Lanhang 2+ goals
29%
Guangxi Lanhang 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Xi'an Ronghai (draw refunded)
60%
Guangxi Lanhang (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xi'an Ronghai at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.28 · 36 matches

Guangxi Lanhang away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.50 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xi'an Ronghai attack 1.25 + Guangxi Lanhang defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Guangxi Lanhang attack 0.88 + Xi'an Ronghai defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Xi'an Ronghai scores more
44%
level
27%
Guangxi Lanhang scores more
29%

Xi'an Ronghai at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Xi'an Ronghai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Xi'an Ronghai vs Guangxi Lanhang

Guangxi Lanhang beat Xi'an Ronghai 3-2 in League Two on September 7, 2024.

The match was played at Yan'an Nationwide Fitness Centre Stadium in Yan'an.