Xewkija Tigers 0–3 Gudja United: Result & Stats

Xewkija Tigers

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Gudja United

1/14/2024

FA Trophy · 1st RoundGozo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Xewkija Tigers34%

×Draw24%

Gudja United41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Xewkija TigersExpected goals in this matchGudja United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.60

Xewkija Tigers

1.44

Gudja United

1.60

Gudja United creates 11% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

0.67

creates per match

1.20

2.00

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Xewkija Tigers

0.67

Gudja United

1.20

allows per match

Xewkija Tigers

2.00

Gudja United

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Xewkija Tigers+0.00on par

Gudja United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xewkija Tigers ↓

Gudja United →

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Xewkija Tigers or draw

59%

Xewkija Tigers or Gudja United

76%

Draw or Gudja United

66%

Winning margin

Xewkija Tigers wins by 2+

16%

Gudja United wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Xewkija Tigers 1+ goals

76%

Xewkija Tigers 2+ goals

42%

Xewkija Tigers 3+ goals

18%

Gudja United 1+ goals

80%

Gudja United 2+ goals

47%

Gudja United 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Xewkija Tigers (draw refunded)

45%

Gudja United (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Xewkija Tigers at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Gudja United away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Xewkija Tigers attack 0.67 + Gudja United defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.44

Gudja United attack 1.20 + Xewkija Tigers defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Xewkija Tigers scores more

34%

level

24%

Gudja United scores more

41%

Gudja United at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Gudja United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff