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Xerez vs La Palma — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Xerez
Xerez
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
La Palma
La Palma
Iván Navarro 69'
Geovanni Barba 42'
4/14/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 29Estadio Municipal de Chapín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Xerez57%
×Draw25%
La Palma17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Xerez
1.58
La Palma
0.74

Xerez creates 114% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 48 away

creates per match

Xerez
1.49
La Palma
0.88

allows per match

Xerez
0.61
La Palma
1.67

finishing

Xerez+0.00on par
La Palma+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xerez ↓

La Palma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Xerez or draw
83%
Xerez or La Palma
75%
Draw or La Palma
43%

Winning margin

Xerez wins by 2+
31%
La Palma wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Xerez 1+ goals
79%
Xerez 2+ goals
47%
Xerez 3+ goals
21%
La Palma 1+ goals
52%
La Palma 2+ goals
17%
La Palma 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Xerez (draw refunded)
77%
La Palma (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xerez at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.61 · 75 matches

La Palma away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.67 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xerez attack 1.49 + La Palma defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

La Palma attack 0.88 + Xerez defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Xerez scores more
57%
level
25%
La Palma scores more
17%

Xerez at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Xerez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'
Geovanni Barba
52'
Iván Navarro← Joselito
61'
Zaca← Omar
67'
Armengol Portoles← Diego Domínguez
69'
Iván Navarro
74'
Bouba Ba← Pedro Juan
74'
Álvaro Prieto← Álex Sánchez
79'
Antonio Domínguez← Miguel Reina
79'
Paco Torres← Ramón García
85'
Sergio Barrera← Rafa Navarro
85'
Moisés Aguilar← Álvaro Fernández
Xerez
La
Juan Corrales
Corrales
Antonio Mesa
Mesa
Rafa Navarro
▼
Navarro
Juan Aguilar
Aguilar
Pedro Juan
▼
Juan
Andrés Pavón
Pavón
Omar
▼
Omar
Álvaro Fernández
▼
Fernández
Álex Sánchez
▼
Sánchez
Gabi
Gabi
Pinto
Pinto
Ismael Gil
Gil
Joselito
▼
Joselito
Rodrí
Rodrí
Álex del Río
Río
Ramón García
▼
García
Geovanni Barba
⚽
Barba
Adri Rodríguez
Rodríguez
C. Taoualy
Taoualy
Miguel Reina
▼
Reina
Perotti
Perotti
Diego Domínguez
▼
Domínguez
Checa
Manager: Checa
52'▲Iván Navarro←▼Joselito
67'▲Armengol Portoles←▼Diego Domínguez
79'▲Antonio Domínguez←▼Miguel Reina
79'▲Paco Torres←▼Ramón García

Xerez substitutes

NavarroPortolesDomínguezTorres
Nacho Molina
Manager: Nacho Molina
61'▲Zaca←▼Omar
74'▲Bouba Ba←▼Pedro Juan
74'▲Álvaro Prieto←▼Álex Sánchez
85'▲Sergio Barrera←▼Rafa Navarro
85'▲Moisés Aguilar←▼Álvaro Fernández

La Palma substitutes

ZacaBaPrietoBarreraAguilar

Match Recap: Xerez vs La Palma

Xerez beat La Palma 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on April 14, 2024.

Goals: Geovanni Barba (42'), Iván Navarro (69').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Chapín in Jerez de la Frontera.