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Xerez vs Gerena — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Xerez
Xerez
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Gerena
Gerena
5/5/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 33Estadio Municipal de Chapín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Xerez49%
×Draw28%
Gerena23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Xerez
1.38
Gerena
0.86

Xerez creates 60% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 76 away

creates per match

Xerez
1.49
Gerena
1.11

allows per match

Xerez
0.61
Gerena
1.26

finishing

Xerez+0.00on par
Gerena+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xerez ↓

Gerena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Xerez or draw
77%
Xerez or Gerena
72%
Draw or Gerena
51%

Winning margin

Xerez wins by 2+
24%
Gerena wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Xerez 1+ goals
75%
Xerez 2+ goals
40%
Xerez 3+ goals
16%
Gerena 1+ goals
58%
Gerena 2+ goals
21%
Gerena 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Xerez (draw refunded)
68%
Gerena (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xerez at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.61 · 75 matches

Gerena away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.26 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xerez attack 1.49 + Gerena defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.38

Gerena attack 1.11 + Xerez defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Xerez scores more
49%
level
28%
Gerena scores more
23%

Xerez at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Xerez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Xerez 2 – 0 Gerena

Xerez beat Gerena 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on May 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Chapín in Jerez de la Frontera.