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Xerez vs Coria CF — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Xerez
Xerez
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Coria CF
Coria CF
10/16/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 6Estadio Municipal de Chapín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Xerez56%
×Draw25%
Coria CF18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Xerez
1.58
Coria CF
0.78

Xerez creates 103% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 95 away

creates per match

Xerez
1.49
Coria CF
0.95

allows per match

Xerez
0.61
Coria CF
1.67

finishing

Xerez+0.00on par
Coria CF+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xerez ↓

Coria CF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Xerez or draw
82%
Xerez or Coria CF
75%
Draw or Coria CF
44%

Winning margin

Xerez wins by 2+
30%
Coria CF wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Xerez 1+ goals
79%
Xerez 2+ goals
47%
Xerez 3+ goals
21%
Coria CF 1+ goals
54%
Coria CF 2+ goals
18%
Coria CF 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Xerez (draw refunded)
75%
Coria CF (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xerez at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.61 · 75 matches

Coria CF away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.67 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xerez attack 1.49 + Coria CF defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

Coria CF attack 0.95 + Xerez defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Xerez scores more
56%
level
25%
Coria CF scores more
18%

Xerez at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Xerez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Xerez vs Coria CF

Xerez beat Coria CF 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on October 16, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Chapín in Jerez de la Frontera.