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Xerez vs Ceuta — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Xerez
Xerez
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ceuta
Ceuta
2/9/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 24Estadio de La Juventud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Xerez39%
×Draw32%
Ceuta30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Xerez
1.04
Ceuta
0.87

Xerez creates 20% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 15 away

creates per match

Xerez
1.49
Ceuta
1.13

allows per match

Xerez
0.61
Ceuta
0.60

finishing

Xerez+0.00on par
Ceuta+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xerez ↓

Ceuta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Xerez or draw
70%
Xerez or Ceuta
68%
Draw or Ceuta
61%

Winning margin

Xerez wins by 2+
15%
Ceuta wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Xerez 1+ goals
65%
Xerez 2+ goals
28%
Xerez 3+ goals
9%
Ceuta 1+ goals
58%
Ceuta 2+ goals
22%
Ceuta 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Xerez (draw refunded)
57%
Ceuta (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xerez at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.61 · 75 matches

Ceuta away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xerez attack 1.49 + Ceuta defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.04

Ceuta attack 1.13 + Xerez defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Xerez scores more
39%
level
32%
Ceuta scores more
30%

Xerez at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Xerez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Xerez 2 – 0 Ceuta

Xerez beat Ceuta 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on February 9, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio de La Juventud in Jerez de la Frontera.