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Xerez vs Bollullos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Xerez
Xerez
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bollullos
Bollullos
4/1/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 28Estadio Municipal de Chapín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Xerez54%
×Draw27%
Bollullos19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Xerez
1.43
Bollullos
0.74

Xerez creates 93% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 67 away

creates per match

Xerez
1.49
Bollullos
0.88

allows per match

Xerez
0.61
Bollullos
1.36

finishing

Xerez+0.00on par
Bollullos+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xerez ↓

Bollullos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Xerez or draw
81%
Xerez or Bollullos
73%
Draw or Bollullos
46%

Winning margin

Xerez wins by 2+
27%
Bollullos wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Xerez 1+ goals
76%
Xerez 2+ goals
42%
Xerez 3+ goals
17%
Bollullos 1+ goals
52%
Bollullos 2+ goals
17%
Bollullos 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Xerez (draw refunded)
73%
Bollullos (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xerez at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.61 · 75 matches

Bollullos away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.36 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xerez attack 1.49 + Bollullos defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.43

Bollullos attack 0.88 + Xerez defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Xerez scores more
54%
level
27%
Bollullos scores more
19%

Xerez at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Xerez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Xerez 2–0 Bollullos

Xerez beat Bollullos 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Chapín in Jerez de la Frontera.