Xerez 0–0 AD Ceuta FC: Result & Stats

Xerez

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

AD Ceuta FC

3/28/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 18Estadio de La Juventud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Xerez53%

×Draw26%

AD Ceuta FC21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

XerezExpected goals in this matchAD Ceuta FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.84

Xerez

1.50

AD Ceuta FC

0.84

Xerez creates 79% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 12 away

1.49

creates per match

1.08

0.61

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Xerez

1.49

AD Ceuta FC

1.08

allows per match

Xerez

0.61

AD Ceuta FC

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Xerez+0.00on par

AD Ceuta FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xerez ↓

AD Ceuta FC →

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Xerez or draw

79%

Xerez or AD Ceuta FC

74%

Draw or AD Ceuta FC

47%

Winning margin

Xerez wins by 2+

27%

AD Ceuta FC wins by 2+

Team goals

Xerez 1+ goals

78%

Xerez 2+ goals

44%

Xerez 3+ goals

19%

AD Ceuta FC 1+ goals

57%

AD Ceuta FC 2+ goals

21%

AD Ceuta FC 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Xerez (draw refunded)

71%

AD Ceuta FC (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Xerez at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.61 · 75 matches

AD Ceuta FC away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Xerez attack 1.49 + AD Ceuta FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

AD Ceuta FC attack 1.08 + Xerez defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Xerez scores more

53%

level

26%

AD Ceuta FC scores more

21%

Xerez at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Xerez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

64'

Manuel Palacios← R. Flueraş

67'

Dani Muñoz← Aisar

77'

Chakir← David Hinojosa

81'

Juanito← Carlos Calvo

89'

Ramón Verdú← Dani Jurado

Xerez

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Esteban Vigo

64'▲Manuel Palacios←▼R. Flueraş

81'▲Juanito←▼Carlos Calvo

89'▲Ramón Verdú←▼Dani Jurado

Xerez substitutes

PalaciosJuanitoVerdú

Manager: José Juan Romero

67'▲Dani Muñoz←▼Aisar

77'▲Chakir←▼David Hinojosa

AD Ceuta FC substitutes

MuñozChakir

Match Recap: Xerez vs AD Ceuta FC

Xerez and AD Ceuta FC drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on March 28, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio de La Juventud in Jerez de la Frontera.

Xerez vs AD Ceuta FC — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Xerez vs AD Ceuta FC