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Xerez Deportivo vs Pozoblanco — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Xerez Deportivo
Xerez Deportivo
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pozoblanco
Pozoblanco
2/2/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 23Estadio Municipal de Chapín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Xerez Deportivo60%
×Draw24%
Pozoblanco15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Xerez Deportivo
1.63
Pozoblanco
0.68

Xerez Deportivo creates 140% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 109 away

creates per match

Xerez Deportivo
1.68
Pozoblanco
0.94

allows per match

Xerez Deportivo
0.43
Pozoblanco
1.58

finishing

Xerez Deportivo+0.00on par
Pozoblanco+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xerez Deportivo ↓

Pozoblanco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Xerez Deportivo or draw
85%
Xerez Deportivo or Pozoblanco
76%
Draw or Pozoblanco
40%

Winning margin

Xerez Deportivo wins by 2+
33%
Pozoblanco wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Xerez Deportivo 1+ goals
80%
Xerez Deportivo 2+ goals
48%
Xerez Deportivo 3+ goals
22%
Pozoblanco 1+ goals
49%
Pozoblanco 2+ goals
15%
Pozoblanco 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Xerez Deportivo (draw refunded)
80%
Pozoblanco (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xerez Deportivo at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.43 · 44 matches

Pozoblanco away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.58 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xerez Deportivo attack 1.68 + Pozoblanco defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.63

Pozoblanco attack 0.94 + Xerez Deportivo defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Xerez Deportivo scores more
60%
level
24%
Pozoblanco scores more
15%

Xerez Deportivo at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Xerez Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Xerez Deportivo 3 – 0 Pozoblanco

Xerez Deportivo beat Pozoblanco 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on February 2, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Chapín in Jerez de la Frontera.