Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Xerez Deportivo vs Lebrijana — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Xerez Deportivo
Xerez Deportivo
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Lebrijana
Lebrijana
10/31/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 11Estadio Municipal de Chapín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Xerez Deportivo67%
×Draw23%
Lebrijana11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Xerez Deportivo
1.71
Lebrijana
0.52

Xerez Deportivo creates 229% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 30 away

creates per match

Xerez Deportivo
1.68
Lebrijana
0.60

allows per match

Xerez Deportivo
0.43
Lebrijana
1.73

finishing

Xerez Deportivo+0.00on par
Lebrijana+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xerez Deportivo ↓

Lebrijana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Xerez Deportivo or draw
89%
Xerez Deportivo or Lebrijana
77%
Draw or Lebrijana
33%

Winning margin

Xerez Deportivo wins by 2+
39%
Lebrijana wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Xerez Deportivo 1+ goals
82%
Xerez Deportivo 2+ goals
51%
Xerez Deportivo 3+ goals
24%
Lebrijana 1+ goals
41%
Lebrijana 2+ goals
10%
Lebrijana 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Xerez Deportivo (draw refunded)
86%
Lebrijana (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xerez Deportivo at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.43 · 44 matches

Lebrijana away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xerez Deportivo attack 1.68 + Lebrijana defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.71

Lebrijana attack 0.60 + Xerez Deportivo defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Xerez Deportivo scores more
67%
level
23%
Lebrijana scores more
11%

Xerez Deportivo at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Xerez Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Xerez Deportivo 3 – 0 Lebrijana

Xerez Deportivo beat Lebrijana 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on October 31, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Chapín in Jerez de la Frontera.