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Xerez Deportivo vs Écija — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Xerez Deportivo
Xerez Deportivo
FT
3 – 0
Écija
Écija
9/8/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 3Estadio Municipal de Chapín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Xerez Deportivo85%
×Draw12%
Écija2%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Xerez Deportivo
2.34
Écija
0.21

Xerez Deportivo creates 1014% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 18 away

creates per match

Xerez Deportivo
1.68
Écija
0.00

allows per match

Xerez Deportivo
0.43
Écija
3.00

finishing

Xerez Deportivo+0.00on par
Écija+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

83%No
  • No83
  • Yes17

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xerez Deportivo ↓

Écija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–14%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–022%
2–15%
2–20%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–017%
3–14%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (22%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Xerez Deportivo or draw
98%
Xerez Deportivo or Écija
88%
Draw or Écija
15%

Winning margin

Xerez Deportivo wins by 2+
62%
Écija wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Xerez Deportivo 1+ goals
90%
Xerez Deportivo 2+ goals
67%
Xerez Deportivo 3+ goals
41%
Écija 1+ goals
19%
Écija 2+ goals
2%
Écija 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Xerez Deportivo (draw refunded)
97%
Écija (draw refunded)
3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
13%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xerez Deportivo at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.43 · 44 matches

Écija away — creates 0.00, concedes 3.00 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xerez Deportivo attack 1.68 + Écija defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.34

Écija attack 0.00 + Xerez Deportivo defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Xerez Deportivo scores more
85%
level
12%
Écija scores more
2%

Xerez Deportivo at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Xerez Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Xerez Deportivo 3–0 Écija

Xerez Deportivo beat Écija 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on September 8, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Chapín in Jerez de la Frontera.