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Xerez Deportivo vs Coria CF — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Xerez Deportivo
Xerez Deportivo
CANC
22:00
Coria CF
Coria CF
5/9/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 37Estadio Municipal de Chapín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Xerez Deportivo61%
×Draw24%
Coria CF15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Xerez Deportivo
1.67
Coria CF
0.69

Xerez Deportivo creates 142% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 95 away

creates per match

Xerez Deportivo
1.68
Coria CF
0.95

allows per match

Xerez Deportivo
0.43
Coria CF
1.67

finishing

Xerez Deportivo+0.00on par
Coria CF+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xerez Deportivo ↓

Coria CF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Xerez Deportivo or draw
85%
Xerez Deportivo or Coria CF
76%
Draw or Coria CF
39%

Winning margin

Xerez Deportivo wins by 2+
34%
Coria CF wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Xerez Deportivo 1+ goals
81%
Xerez Deportivo 2+ goals
50%
Xerez Deportivo 3+ goals
23%
Coria CF 1+ goals
50%
Coria CF 2+ goals
15%
Coria CF 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Xerez Deportivo (draw refunded)
80%
Coria CF (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xerez Deportivo at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.43 · 44 matches

Coria CF away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.67 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xerez Deportivo attack 1.68 + Coria CF defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Coria CF attack 0.95 + Xerez Deportivo defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Xerez Deportivo scores more
61%
level
24%
Coria CF scores more
15%

Xerez Deportivo at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Xerez Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Xerez Deportivo vs Coria CF — Match Preview

Xerez Deportivo face Coria CF on May 9, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Xerez Deportivo host Coria CF at Estadio Municipal de Chapín.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.