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Xerez Deportivo vs Córdoba II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Xerez Deportivo
Xerez Deportivo
CANC
00:00
Córdoba II
Córdoba II
3/22/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 31Estadio Municipal de Chapín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Xerez Deportivo55%
×Draw26%
Córdoba II19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Xerez Deportivo
1.51
Córdoba II
0.78

Xerez Deportivo creates 94% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 110 away

creates per match

Xerez Deportivo
1.68
Córdoba II
1.13

allows per match

Xerez Deportivo
0.43
Córdoba II
1.34

finishing

Xerez Deportivo+0.00on par
Córdoba II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xerez Deportivo ↓

Córdoba II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Xerez Deportivo or draw
81%
Xerez Deportivo or Córdoba II
74%
Draw or Córdoba II
45%

Winning margin

Xerez Deportivo wins by 2+
28%
Córdoba II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Xerez Deportivo 1+ goals
78%
Xerez Deportivo 2+ goals
44%
Xerez Deportivo 3+ goals
19%
Córdoba II 1+ goals
54%
Córdoba II 2+ goals
18%
Córdoba II 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Xerez Deportivo (draw refunded)
74%
Córdoba II (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xerez Deportivo at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.43 · 44 matches

Córdoba II away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.34 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xerez Deportivo attack 1.68 + Córdoba II defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.51

Córdoba II attack 1.13 + Xerez Deportivo defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Xerez Deportivo scores more
55%
level
26%
Córdoba II scores more
19%

Xerez Deportivo at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Xerez Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Xerez Deportivo vs Córdoba II — Match Preview

Xerez Deportivo face Córdoba II on March 22, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Xerez Deportivo host Córdoba II at Estadio Municipal de Chapín.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.