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Xerez Deportivo vs Ciudad de Lucena — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Xerez Deportivo
Xerez Deportivo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Ciudad de Lucena
Ciudad de Lucena
3/3/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 24Estadio Municipal de Chapín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Xerez Deportivo50%
×Draw29%
Ciudad de Lucena21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Xerez Deportivo
1.29
Ciudad de Lucena
0.74

Xerez Deportivo creates 74% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 110 away

creates per match

Xerez Deportivo
1.68
Ciudad de Lucena
1.06

allows per match

Xerez Deportivo
0.43
Ciudad de Lucena
0.90

finishing

Xerez Deportivo+0.00on par
Ciudad de Lucena+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xerez Deportivo ↓

Ciudad de Lucena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Xerez Deportivo or draw
79%
Xerez Deportivo or Ciudad de Lucena
71%
Draw or Ciudad de Lucena
50%

Winning margin

Xerez Deportivo wins by 2+
23%
Ciudad de Lucena wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Xerez Deportivo 1+ goals
72%
Xerez Deportivo 2+ goals
37%
Xerez Deportivo 3+ goals
14%
Ciudad de Lucena 1+ goals
52%
Ciudad de Lucena 2+ goals
17%
Ciudad de Lucena 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Xerez Deportivo (draw refunded)
70%
Ciudad de Lucena (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xerez Deportivo at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.43 · 44 matches

Ciudad de Lucena away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.90 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xerez Deportivo attack 1.68 + Ciudad de Lucena defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.29

Ciudad de Lucena attack 1.06 + Xerez Deportivo defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Xerez Deportivo scores more
50%
level
29%
Ciudad de Lucena scores more
21%

Xerez Deportivo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Xerez Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Xerez Deportivo 2 – 0 Ciudad de Lucena

Xerez Deportivo beat Ciudad de Lucena 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Chapín in Jerez de la Frontera.