Xerez Deportivo 1–1 Ceuta II: Result & Stats

Xerez Deportivo

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Ceuta II

11/26/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 12Estadio Municipal de Chapín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Xerez Deportivo59%

×Draw26%

Ceuta II15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Xerez DeportivoExpected goals in this matchCeuta II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.63

Xerez Deportivo

1.54

Ceuta II

0.63

Xerez Deportivo creates 144% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 82 away

1.68

creates per match

0.82

0.43

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Xerez Deportivo

1.68

Ceuta II

0.82

allows per match

Xerez Deportivo

0.43

Ceuta II

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Xerez Deportivo+0.00on par

Ceuta II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xerez Deportivo ↓

Ceuta II →

0–011%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–018%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Xerez Deportivo or draw

85%

Xerez Deportivo or Ceuta II

74%

Draw or Ceuta II

41%

Winning margin

Xerez Deportivo wins by 2+

32%

Ceuta II wins by 2+

Team goals

Xerez Deportivo 1+ goals

79%

Xerez Deportivo 2+ goals

45%

Xerez Deportivo 3+ goals

20%

Ceuta II 1+ goals

47%

Ceuta II 2+ goals

13%

Ceuta II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Xerez Deportivo (draw refunded)

80%

Ceuta II (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Xerez Deportivo at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.43 · 44 matches

Ceuta II away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.40 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Xerez Deportivo attack 1.68 + Ceuta II defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.54

Ceuta II attack 0.82 + Xerez Deportivo defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

Xerez Deportivo scores more

59%

level

26%

Ceuta II scores more

15%

Xerez Deportivo at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Xerez Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Xerez Deportivo 1–1 Ceuta II

Xerez Deportivo and Ceuta II drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Chapín in Jerez de la Frontera.

Xerez Deportivo vs Ceuta II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Xerez Deportivo 1–1 Ceuta II