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Xelajú vs Zacapa Tellioz — Liga Nacional 2019

Xelajú
Xelajú
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Zacapa Tellioz
Zacapa Tellioz
10/6/2024Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Apertura - 10Estadio Mario Camposeco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Xelajú64%
×Draw22%
Zacapa Tellioz14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Xelajú
1.83
Zacapa Tellioz
0.70

Xelajú creates 161% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 26 away

creates per match

Xelajú
1.54
Zacapa Tellioz
0.65

allows per match

Xelajú
0.74
Zacapa Tellioz
2.12

finishing

Xelajú+0.00on par
Zacapa Tellioz+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xelajú ↓

Zacapa Tellioz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Xelajú or draw
86%
Xelajú or Zacapa Tellioz
78%
Draw or Zacapa Tellioz
36%

Winning margin

Xelajú wins by 2+
38%
Zacapa Tellioz wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Xelajú 1+ goals
84%
Xelajú 2+ goals
54%
Xelajú 3+ goals
28%
Zacapa Tellioz 1+ goals
50%
Zacapa Tellioz 2+ goals
16%
Zacapa Tellioz 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Xelajú (draw refunded)
82%
Zacapa Tellioz (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xelajú at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.74 · 145 matches

Zacapa Tellioz away — creates 0.65, concedes 2.12 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xelajú attack 1.54 + Zacapa Tellioz defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.83

Zacapa Tellioz attack 0.65 + Xelajú defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Xelajú scores more
64%
level
22%
Zacapa Tellioz scores more
14%

Xelajú at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Xelajú will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Xelajú vs Zacapa Tellioz

Xelajú beat Zacapa Tellioz 4-0 in Liga Nacional on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Mario Camposeco in Quetzaltenango.