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Xelajú vs Siquinalá — Liga Nacional 2019

Xelajú
Xelajú
CANC
00:00
Siquinalá
Siquinalá
3/22/2020Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Clausura - 14Estadio Mario Camposeco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Xelajú62%
×Draw23%
Siquinalá15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Xelajú
1.77
Siquinalá
0.74

Xelajú creates 139% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 17 away

creates per match

Xelajú
1.54
Siquinalá
0.76

allows per match

Xelajú
0.73
Siquinalá
2.00

finishing

Xelajú+0.00on par
Siquinalá+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xelajú ↓

Siquinalá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Xelajú or draw
85%
Xelajú or Siquinalá
77%
Draw or Siquinalá
38%

Winning margin

Xelajú wins by 2+
36%
Siquinalá wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Xelajú 1+ goals
83%
Xelajú 2+ goals
53%
Xelajú 3+ goals
26%
Siquinalá 1+ goals
52%
Siquinalá 2+ goals
17%
Siquinalá 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Xelajú (draw refunded)
80%
Siquinalá (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xelajú at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.73 · 146 matches

Siquinalá away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xelajú attack 1.54 + Siquinalá defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.77

Siquinalá attack 0.76 + Xelajú defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Xelajú scores more
62%
level
23%
Siquinalá scores more
15%

Xelajú at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Xelajú will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Xelajú host Siquinalá

March 22, 2020: Xelajú take on Siquinalá in Liga Nacional. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Xelajú host Siquinalá at Estadio Mario Camposeco.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.