Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Xelajú vs Cobán Imperial — Liga Nacional 2019

Xelajú
Xelajú
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cobán Imperial
Cobán Imperial
4/26/2026Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Clausura - 22Estadio Mario Camposeco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 145+ matches

Xelajú53%
×Draw27%
Cobán Imperial21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Xelajú
1.47
Cobán Imperial
0.81

Xelajú creates 81% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 146 away

creates per match

Xelajú
1.54
Cobán Imperial
0.88

allows per match

Xelajú
0.74
Cobán Imperial
1.40

finishing

Xelajú+0.00on par
Cobán Imperial+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xelajú ↓

Cobán Imperial →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Xelajú or draw
79%
Xelajú or Cobán Imperial
73%
Draw or Cobán Imperial
47%

Winning margin

Xelajú wins by 2+
27%
Cobán Imperial wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Xelajú 1+ goals
77%
Xelajú 2+ goals
43%
Xelajú 3+ goals
18%
Cobán Imperial 1+ goals
56%
Cobán Imperial 2+ goals
19%
Cobán Imperial 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Xelajú (draw refunded)
72%
Cobán Imperial (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xelajú at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.74 · 145 matches

Cobán Imperial away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.40 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xelajú attack 1.54 + Cobán Imperial defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.47

Cobán Imperial attack 0.88 + Xelajú defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Xelajú scores more
53%
level
27%
Cobán Imperial scores more
21%

Xelajú at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Xelajú will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Xelajú vs Cobán Imperial

Xelajú beat Cobán Imperial 2-1 in Liga Nacional on April 26, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Mario Camposeco in Quetzaltenango.