Xelajú 1–1 Coatepecano IB: Result & Stats

Xelajú

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Coatepecano IB

8/26/2023

Liga Nacional · Apertura - 5Estadio Mario Camposeco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Xelajú67%

×Draw21%

Coatepecano IB12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

XelajúExpected goals in this matchCoatepecano IB

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

0.65

Xelajú

1.90

Coatepecano IB

0.65

Xelajú creates 192% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 16 away

1.54

creates per match

0.56

0.73

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Xelajú

1.54

Coatepecano IB

0.56

allows per match

Xelajú

0.73

Coatepecano IB

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Xelajú+0.00on par

Coatepecano IB+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xelajú ↓

Coatepecano IB →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Xelajú or draw

88%

Xelajú or Coatepecano IB

79%

Draw or Coatepecano IB

33%

Winning margin

Xelajú wins by 2+

41%

Coatepecano IB wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Xelajú 1+ goals

85%

Xelajú 2+ goals

56%

Xelajú 3+ goals

29%

Coatepecano IB 1+ goals

48%

Coatepecano IB 2+ goals

14%

Coatepecano IB 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Xelajú (draw refunded)

85%

Coatepecano IB (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xelajú at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.73 · 146 matches

Coatepecano IB away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xelajú attack 1.54 + Coatepecano IB defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.90

Coatepecano IB attack 0.56 + Xelajú defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Xelajú scores more

67%

level

21%

Coatepecano IB scores more

12%

Xelajú at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Xelajú will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff