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Wythenshawe vs Barnsley W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Wythenshawe
Wythenshawe
FT
2 – 3
Barnsley W
Barnsley W
10/22/2023FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 3rd Round QualifyingSelco Builders Warehouse Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Wythenshawe60%
×Draw17%
Barnsley W23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wythenshawe
2.93
Barnsley W
1.79

Wythenshawe creates 64% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Wythenshawe
3.00
Barnsley W
1.57

allows per match

Wythenshawe
2.00
Barnsley W
2.86

finishing

Wythenshawe+0.00on par
Barnsley W+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wythenshawe ↓

Barnsley W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Wythenshawe or draw
77%
Wythenshawe or Barnsley W
83%
Draw or Barnsley W
40%

Winning margin

Wythenshawe wins by 2+
41%
Barnsley W wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Wythenshawe 1+ goals
94%
Wythenshawe 2+ goals
78%
Wythenshawe 3+ goals
55%
Barnsley W 1+ goals
83%
Barnsley W 2+ goals
53%
Barnsley W 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Wythenshawe (draw refunded)
73%
Barnsley W (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wythenshawe at home — creates 3.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Barnsley W away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wythenshawe attack 3.00 + Barnsley W defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.93

Barnsley W attack 1.57 + Wythenshawe defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Wythenshawe scores more
60%
level
17%
Barnsley W scores more
23%

Wythenshawe at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Wythenshawe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Wythenshawe 2–3 Barnsley W

Barnsley W beat Wythenshawe 3-2 in FA Women's Cup on October 22, 2023.

The match was played at Selco Builders Warehouse Community Stadium in Manchester, Cheshire.