Wydad Fès 2–1 Youssoufia Berrechid: Result & Stats

Wydad Fès

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Youssoufia Berrechid

3/4/2023

Botola 2 · Round 18Stade Hassan-II

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Wydad Fès45%

×Draw29%

Youssoufia Berrechid26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wydad FèsExpected goals in this matchYoussoufia Berrechid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.85

Wydad Fès

1.23

Youssoufia Berrechid

0.85

Wydad Fès creates 45% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 30 away

1.22

creates per match

0.87

0.84

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Wydad Fès

1.22

Youssoufia Berrechid

0.87

allows per match

Wydad Fès

0.84

Youssoufia Berrechid

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wydad Fès+0.00on par

Youssoufia Berrechid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wydad Fès ↓

Youssoufia Berrechid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Wydad Fès or draw

74%

Wydad Fès or Youssoufia Berrechid

71%

Draw or Youssoufia Berrechid

55%

Winning margin

Wydad Fès wins by 2+

20%

Youssoufia Berrechid wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Wydad Fès 1+ goals

71%

Wydad Fès 2+ goals

35%

Wydad Fès 3+ goals

13%

Youssoufia Berrechid 1+ goals

57%

Youssoufia Berrechid 2+ goals

21%

Youssoufia Berrechid 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Wydad Fès (draw refunded)

64%

Youssoufia Berrechid (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wydad Fès at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.84 · 121 matches

Youssoufia Berrechid away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wydad Fès attack 1.22 + Youssoufia Berrechid defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.23

Youssoufia Berrechid attack 0.87 + Wydad Fès defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Wydad Fès scores more

45%

level

29%

Youssoufia Berrechid scores more

26%

Wydad Fès at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Wydad Fès will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff