Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Wydad Fès vs USM Oujda — Botola 2 2025

Wydad Fès
Wydad Fès
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
USM Oujda
USM Oujda
5/14/2025Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 29Stade Hassan-II

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Wydad Fès49%
×Draw29%
USM Oujda22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wydad Fès
1.29
USM Oujda
0.77

Wydad Fès creates 68% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 75 away

creates per match

Wydad Fès
1.22
USM Oujda
0.71

allows per match

Wydad Fès
0.84
USM Oujda
1.37

finishing

Wydad Fès+0.00on par
USM Oujda+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wydad Fès ↓

USM Oujda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Wydad Fès or draw
78%
Wydad Fès or USM Oujda
71%
Draw or USM Oujda
51%

Winning margin

Wydad Fès wins by 2+
23%
USM Oujda wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Wydad Fès 1+ goals
72%
Wydad Fès 2+ goals
37%
Wydad Fès 3+ goals
14%
USM Oujda 1+ goals
54%
USM Oujda 2+ goals
18%
USM Oujda 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Wydad Fès (draw refunded)
69%
USM Oujda (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wydad Fès at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.84 · 121 matches

USM Oujda away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.37 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wydad Fès attack 1.22 + USM Oujda defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.29

USM Oujda attack 0.71 + Wydad Fès defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Wydad Fès scores more
49%
level
29%
USM Oujda scores more
22%

Wydad Fès at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Wydad Fès will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wydad Fès vs USM Oujda

Wydad Fès beat USM Oujda 2-0 in Botola 2 on May 14, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Hassan-II in Fès.