Wydad Fès 0–2 Olympique Dcheïra: Result & Stats

Wydad Fès

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Olympique Dcheïra

A. Bennadi 83'

B. Hammou 44'

12/28/2024

Botola 2 · Round 11Stade Hassan-II

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Wydad Fès41%

×Draw29%

Olympique Dcheïra30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wydad FèsExpected goals in this matchOlympique Dcheïra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.98

Wydad Fès

1.20

Olympique Dcheïra

0.98

Wydad Fès creates 22% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 104 away

1.22

creates per match

1.12

0.84

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Wydad Fès

1.22

Olympique Dcheïra

1.12

allows per match

Wydad Fès

0.84

Olympique Dcheïra

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wydad Fès+0.00on par

Olympique Dcheïra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wydad Fès ↓

Olympique Dcheïra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Wydad Fès or draw

70%

Wydad Fès or Olympique Dcheïra

71%

Draw or Olympique Dcheïra

59%

Winning margin

Wydad Fès wins by 2+

18%

Olympique Dcheïra wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Wydad Fès 1+ goals

70%

Wydad Fès 2+ goals

34%

Wydad Fès 3+ goals

12%

Olympique Dcheïra 1+ goals

62%

Olympique Dcheïra 2+ goals

26%

Olympique Dcheïra 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Wydad Fès (draw refunded)

58%

Olympique Dcheïra (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wydad Fès at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.84 · 121 matches

Olympique Dcheïra away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.18 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wydad Fès attack 1.22 + Olympique Dcheïra defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.20

Olympique Dcheïra attack 1.12 + Wydad Fès defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Wydad Fès scores more

41%

level

29%

Olympique Dcheïra scores more

30%

Wydad Fès at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Wydad Fès will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

B. Hammou

83'

A. Bennadi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff