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Wydad Fès vs KAC Kenitra — Botola 2 2025

Wydad Fès
Wydad Fès
FT
4 – 1
KAC Kenitra
KAC Kenitra
A. Hamza 90', 70'
K. Salhi 55'
Y. Al-Zara 31'
A. Rahmaooui 45'
3/6/2021Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 13Stade Hassan-II

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Wydad Fès45%
×Draw29%
KAC Kenitra26%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wydad Fès
1.25
KAC Kenitra
0.89

Wydad Fès creates 40% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 73 away

creates per match

Wydad Fès
1.23
KAC Kenitra
0.93

allows per match

Wydad Fès
0.84
KAC Kenitra
1.26

finishing

Wydad Fès+0.00on par
KAC Kenitra+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wydad Fès ↓

KAC Kenitra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Wydad Fès or draw
74%
Wydad Fès or KAC Kenitra
71%
Draw or KAC Kenitra
55%

Winning margin

Wydad Fès wins by 2+
20%
KAC Kenitra wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Wydad Fès 1+ goals
71%
Wydad Fès 2+ goals
36%
Wydad Fès 3+ goals
13%
KAC Kenitra 1+ goals
59%
KAC Kenitra 2+ goals
22%
KAC Kenitra 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Wydad Fès (draw refunded)
63%
KAC Kenitra (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wydad Fès at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.84 · 120 matches

KAC Kenitra away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.26 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wydad Fès attack 1.23 + KAC Kenitra defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.25

KAC Kenitra attack 0.93 + Wydad Fès defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Wydad Fès scores more
45%
level
29%
KAC Kenitra scores more
26%

Wydad Fès at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Wydad Fès will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'
Y. Al-Zara
45'
A. Rahmaooui
55'
K. Salhi
70'
A. Hamza
90'
A. Hamza

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: Wydad Fès 4–1 KAC Kenitra

Wydad Fès beat KAC Kenitra 4-1 in Botola 2 on March 6, 2021.

Goals: Y. Al-Zara (31'), A. Rahmaooui (45'), K. Salhi (55'), A. Hamza (70', 90').

The match was played at Stade Hassan-II in Fès.