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KAC Kenitra vs Wydad Fès — Botola 2 2025

KAC Kenitra
KAC Kenitra
FT
1 – 1
Wydad Fès
Wydad Fès
Unknown 90'
O. El Baraka 27'
6/25/2021Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 28Stade Municipal de Kénitra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

KAC Kenitra45%
×Draw29%
Wydad Fès26%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KAC Kenitra
1.27
Wydad Fès
0.90

KAC Kenitra creates 41% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 117 away

creates per match

KAC Kenitra
1.26
Wydad Fès
0.79

allows per match

KAC Kenitra
1.00
Wydad Fès
1.27

finishing

KAC Kenitra+0.00on par
Wydad Fès+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KAC Kenitra ↓

Wydad Fès →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

KAC Kenitra or draw
74%
KAC Kenitra or Wydad Fès
71%
Draw or Wydad Fès
55%

Winning margin

KAC Kenitra wins by 2+
20%
Wydad Fès wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

KAC Kenitra 1+ goals
72%
KAC Kenitra 2+ goals
36%
KAC Kenitra 3+ goals
14%
Wydad Fès 1+ goals
59%
Wydad Fès 2+ goals
23%
Wydad Fès 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

KAC Kenitra (draw refunded)
63%
Wydad Fès (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KAC Kenitra at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.00 · 74 matches

Wydad Fès away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.27 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KAC Kenitra attack 1.26 + Wydad Fès defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.27

Wydad Fès attack 0.79 + KAC Kenitra defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

KAC Kenitra scores more
45%
level
29%
Wydad Fès scores more
26%

KAC Kenitra at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "KAC Kenitra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
O. El Baraka
90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KAC Kenitra vs Wydad Fès

KAC Kenitra and Wydad Fès drew 1-1 in Botola 2 on June 25, 2021.

Goals: O. El Baraka (27'), ? (90').

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Kénitra in Kénitra.