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Wydad Fès vs CODM Meknès — Botola 2 2025

Wydad Fès
Wydad Fès
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
CODM Meknès
CODM Meknès
11/12/2023Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 10Complexe Sportif de Fès

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Wydad Fès38%
×Draw31%
CODM Meknès30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wydad Fès
1.04
CODM Meknès
0.89

Wydad Fès creates 17% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 15 away

creates per match

Wydad Fès
1.22
CODM Meknès
0.93

allows per match

Wydad Fès
0.84
CODM Meknès
0.87

finishing

Wydad Fès+0.00on par
CODM Meknès+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wydad Fès ↓

CODM Meknès →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Wydad Fès or draw
70%
Wydad Fès or CODM Meknès
69%
Draw or CODM Meknès
62%

Winning margin

Wydad Fès wins by 2+
15%
CODM Meknès wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Wydad Fès 1+ goals
65%
Wydad Fès 2+ goals
28%
Wydad Fès 3+ goals
9%
CODM Meknès 1+ goals
59%
CODM Meknès 2+ goals
22%
CODM Meknès 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Wydad Fès (draw refunded)
56%
CODM Meknès (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wydad Fès at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.84 · 121 matches

CODM Meknès away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wydad Fès attack 1.22 + CODM Meknès defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.04

CODM Meknès attack 0.93 + Wydad Fès defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Wydad Fès scores more
38%
level
31%
CODM Meknès scores more
30%

Wydad Fès at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Wydad Fès will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: Wydad Fès 0–1 CODM Meknès

CODM Meknès beat Wydad Fès 1-0 in Botola 2 on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Complexe Sportif de Fès in Fès.