Wydad Fès 1–0 Chabab RIF Hoceima: Result & Stats

Wydad Fès

FT

1 – 0

Chabab RIF Hoceima

11/9/2019

Botola 2 · Round 8Terrain Muncipal d'Azrou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Wydad Fès53%

×Draw28%

Chabab RIF Hoceima18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wydad FèsExpected goals in this matchChabab RIF Hoceima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.66

Wydad Fès

1.34

Chabab RIF Hoceima

0.66

Wydad Fès creates 103% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 15 away

1.22

creates per match

0.47

0.84

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Wydad Fès

1.22

Chabab RIF Hoceima

0.47

allows per match

Wydad Fès

0.84

Chabab RIF Hoceima

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wydad Fès+0.00on par

Chabab RIF Hoceima+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wydad Fès ↓

Chabab RIF Hoceima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Wydad Fès or draw

82%

Wydad Fès or Chabab RIF Hoceima

72%

Draw or Chabab RIF Hoceima

47%

Winning margin

Wydad Fès wins by 2+

26%

Chabab RIF Hoceima wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Wydad Fès 1+ goals

74%

Wydad Fès 2+ goals

39%

Wydad Fès 3+ goals

15%

Chabab RIF Hoceima 1+ goals

48%

Chabab RIF Hoceima 2+ goals

14%

Chabab RIF Hoceima 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Wydad Fès (draw refunded)

74%

Chabab RIF Hoceima (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wydad Fès at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.84 · 121 matches

Chabab RIF Hoceima away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wydad Fès attack 1.22 + Chabab RIF Hoceima defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.34

Chabab RIF Hoceima attack 0.47 + Wydad Fès defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Wydad Fès scores more

53%

level

28%

Chabab RIF Hoceima scores more

18%

Wydad Fès at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Wydad Fès will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff