Wydad Fès 2–1 AS Salé: Result & Stats | Botola 2

Wydad Fès

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

AS Salé

10/2/2022

Botola 2 · Round 4Stade Hassan-II

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Wydad Fès48%

×Draw28%

AS Salé24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wydad FèsExpected goals in this matchAS Salé

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.88

Wydad Fès

1.36

AS Salé

0.88

Wydad Fès creates 55% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 90 away

1.22

creates per match

0.92

0.84

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Wydad Fès

1.22

AS Salé

0.92

allows per match

Wydad Fès

0.84

AS Salé

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wydad Fès+0.00on par

AS Salé+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wydad Fès ↓

AS Salé →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Wydad Fès or draw

76%

Wydad Fès or AS Salé

72%

Draw or AS Salé

52%

Winning margin

Wydad Fès wins by 2+

23%

AS Salé wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Wydad Fès 1+ goals

74%

Wydad Fès 2+ goals

39%

Wydad Fès 3+ goals

16%

AS Salé 1+ goals

59%

AS Salé 2+ goals

22%

AS Salé 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Wydad Fès (draw refunded)

66%

AS Salé (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wydad Fès at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.84 · 121 matches

AS Salé away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.50 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wydad Fès attack 1.22 + AS Salé defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.36

AS Salé attack 0.92 + Wydad Fès defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Wydad Fès scores more

48%

level

28%

AS Salé scores more

24%

Wydad Fès at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Wydad Fès will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff