Wydad AC 5–1 Petro de Luanda: Result & Stats

Wydad AC

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Petro de Luanda

Muaid Ellafi 71'

A. Hassouni 56'

Z. El-Moutaraji 32'

A. Dari 29'

J. Tsoumou 11'

Pedro Pinto 63'

4/2/2022

CAF Champions League · Group D - 6Stade Mohamed V

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Wydad AC59%

×Draw24%

Petro de Luanda17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wydad ACExpected goals in this matchPetro de Luanda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.76

Wydad AC

1.65

Petro de Luanda

0.76

Wydad AC creates 117% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 33 away

2.14

creates per match

1.09

0.43

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Wydad AC

2.14

Petro de Luanda

1.09

allows per match

Wydad AC

0.43

Petro de Luanda

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wydad AC+0.00on par

Petro de Luanda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wydad AC ↓

Petro de Luanda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Wydad AC or draw

83%

Wydad AC or Petro de Luanda

76%

Draw or Petro de Luanda

41%

Winning margin

Wydad AC wins by 2+

32%

Petro de Luanda wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Wydad AC 1+ goals

81%

Wydad AC 2+ goals

49%

Wydad AC 3+ goals

23%

Petro de Luanda 1+ goals

53%

Petro de Luanda 2+ goals

18%

Petro de Luanda 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Wydad AC (draw refunded)

77%

Petro de Luanda (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wydad AC at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.43 · 28 matches

Petro de Luanda away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.15 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wydad AC attack 2.14 + Petro de Luanda defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.65

Petro de Luanda attack 1.09 + Wydad AC defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Wydad AC scores more

59%

level

24%

Petro de Luanda scores more

17%

Wydad AC at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Wydad AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

R. Jaadi

Wydad AC · M

8.2

Match Events

11'

J. Tsoumou↳ R. Jaadi

29'

A. Dari↳ A. Hassouni

32'

Z. El-Moutaraji↳ Y. Jabrane

43'

Zouhair El Moutaraji

46'

H. Asrir← Y. Attiyat Allah

53'

Quinito

56'

A. Hassouni

63'

G. Mbenza← J. Tsoumou

63'

A. Haimoud← A. Hassouni

63'

Pedro Pinto↳ Yano

64'

Maya← Pedro Pessoa

64'

Érico Castro← Tiago Azulão

65'

Vidinho← Quinito

65'

Anderson Cruz← Job

71'

Muaid Ellafi↳ Z. El-Moutaraji

72'

Muaid Ellafi

73'

S. Benyachou← Z. El-Moutaraji

77'

A. Serrhat← A. El Amloud

77'

Ito← Yano

83'

Mohamed Rahim

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WydadPetro

Overview

46%Possession54%

10Total Shots12

1Corners4

24Fouls16

Shots

10Total Shots12

5On Target3

5Off Target6

0Blocked3

7Inside Box7

3Outside Box5

Passing

46%Possession54%

374Total Passes426

306Accurate Passes355

82%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

24Fouls16

3Yellow Cards1

5Offsides1