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Wydad AC vs Petro de Luanda — CAF Champions League 2019

Wydad AC
Wydad AC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Petro de Luanda
Petro de Luanda
M. Ounajem 22'
W. El Karti 15'
4/10/2021CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Group C - 6Stade Mohamed V

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Wydad AC59%
×Draw24%
Petro de Luanda17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wydad AC
1.65
Petro de Luanda
0.76

Wydad AC creates 117% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 33 away

creates per match

Wydad AC
2.14
Petro de Luanda
1.09

allows per match

Wydad AC
0.43
Petro de Luanda
1.15

finishing

Wydad AC+0.00on par
Petro de Luanda+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wydad AC ↓

Petro de Luanda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Wydad AC or draw
83%
Wydad AC or Petro de Luanda
76%
Draw or Petro de Luanda
41%

Winning margin

Wydad AC wins by 2+
32%
Petro de Luanda wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Wydad AC 1+ goals
81%
Wydad AC 2+ goals
49%
Wydad AC 3+ goals
23%
Petro de Luanda 1+ goals
53%
Petro de Luanda 2+ goals
18%
Petro de Luanda 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Wydad AC (draw refunded)
77%
Petro de Luanda (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wydad AC at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.43 · 28 matches

Petro de Luanda away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.15 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wydad AC attack 2.14 + Petro de Luanda defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.65

Petro de Luanda attack 1.09 + Wydad AC defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Wydad AC scores more
59%
level
24%
Petro de Luanda scores more
17%

Wydad AC at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Wydad AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
A. TagnaoutiWydad ACWydad AC · G
7.3

Match Events

15'
W. El Karti↳ A. El Amloud
22'
M. Ounajem
35'
Ito
46'
Z. El-Moutaraji← Muaid Ellafi
46'
Além← Ito
60'
Zouhair El Moutaraji
60'
Tiago Azulão← Manguxi
65'
Yano
70'
H. Ait Allal← M. Ounajem
71'
S. El Moudane← S. Saidi
74'
I. Mensah← Picas
80'
Soufian El Moudane
81'
M. Rahim← A. Hassouni
85'
Megue← Yano
89'
A. Serrhat← W. El Karti

Possession

61%Wydad

Shots

3Wydad

Pass accuracy

51%Wydad

Statistics

WydadPetro
Overview
61%Possession39%
3Total Shots3
4Corners2
23Fouls15
Shots
3Total Shots3
2On Target1
1Off Target2
0Blocked0
2Inside Box2
1Outside Box1
Passing
61%Possession39%
705Total Passes425
619Accurate Passes352
88%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
1Saves0
Discipline
23Fouls15
2Yellow Cards2
2Offsides5

Match Recap: Wydad AC vs Petro de Luanda

Wydad AC beat Petro de Luanda 2-0 in CAF Champions League on April 10, 2021.

Goals: W. El Karti (15'), M. Ounajem (22').

Wydad AC controlled possession (61%) and registered 3 shots to 3.

The match was played at Stade Mohamed V in Casablanca.