Wydad AC 4–1 Olympique Khouribga: Result & Stats

Wydad AC

FT

4 – 1

Olympique Khouribga

6/4/2019

Botola Pro · Round 27Stade Mohamed V (Casablanca)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Wydad AC55%

×Draw25%

Olympique Khouribga20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wydad ACExpected goals in this matchOlympique Khouribga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.83

Wydad AC

1.56

Olympique Khouribga

0.83

Wydad AC creates 88% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 60 away

1.79

creates per match

0.82

0.84

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Wydad AC

1.79

Olympique Khouribga

0.82

allows per match

Wydad AC

0.84

Olympique Khouribga

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wydad AC+0.00on par

Olympique Khouribga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wydad AC ↓

Olympique Khouribga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Wydad AC or draw

80%

Wydad AC or Olympique Khouribga

75%

Draw or Olympique Khouribga

45%

Winning margin

Wydad AC wins by 2+

29%

Olympique Khouribga wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Wydad AC 1+ goals

79%

Wydad AC 2+ goals

46%

Wydad AC 3+ goals

21%

Olympique Khouribga 1+ goals

56%

Olympique Khouribga 2+ goals

20%

Olympique Khouribga 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Wydad AC (draw refunded)

73%

Olympique Khouribga (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wydad AC at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.84 · 120 matches

Olympique Khouribga away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.33 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wydad AC attack 1.79 + Olympique Khouribga defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.56

Olympique Khouribga attack 0.82 + Wydad AC defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Wydad AC scores more

55%

level

25%

Olympique Khouribga scores more

20%

Wydad AC at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Wydad AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff