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Olympique Khouribga vs Wydad AC — Cup 2020

Olympique Khouribga
Olympique Khouribga
FT
0 – 1
Wydad AC
Wydad ACadvanced
12/30/2020CupCup · Round of 32Stade du Phosphate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Olympique Khouribga23%
×Draw26%
Wydad AC51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique Khouribga
0.92
Wydad AC
1.50

Wydad AC creates 63% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Olympique Khouribga
1.17
Wydad AC
2.17

allows per match

Olympique Khouribga
0.83
Wydad AC
0.67

finishing

Olympique Khouribga+0.00on par
Wydad AC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Khouribga ↓

Wydad AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Olympique Khouribga or draw
49%
Olympique Khouribga or Wydad AC
74%
Draw or Wydad AC
77%

Winning margin

Olympique Khouribga wins by 2+
8%
Wydad AC wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Olympique Khouribga 1+ goals
60%
Olympique Khouribga 2+ goals
23%
Olympique Khouribga 3+ goals
7%
Wydad AC 1+ goals
78%
Wydad AC 2+ goals
44%
Wydad AC 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Olympique Khouribga (draw refunded)
31%
Wydad AC (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Khouribga at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Wydad AC away — creates 2.17, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Khouribga attack 1.17 + Wydad AC defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.92

Wydad AC attack 2.17 + Olympique Khouribga defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Olympique Khouribga scores more
23%
level
26%
Wydad AC scores more
51%

Wydad AC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Wydad AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olympique Khouribga vs Wydad AC

Wydad AC beat Olympique Khouribga 1-0 in Cup on December 30, 2020.

The match was played at Stade du Phosphate in Khouribga.