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Wydad AC vs MC Alger — CAF Champions League 2019

Wydad AC
Wydad ACadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
MC Alger
MC Alger
W. El Karti 90+2'
5/22/2021CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Quarter-finalsStade Mohamed V

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Wydad AC62%
×Draw27%
MC Alger12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wydad AC
1.43
MC Alger
0.45

Wydad AC creates 218% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 17 away

creates per match

Wydad AC
2.14
MC Alger
0.47

allows per match

Wydad AC
0.43
MC Alger
0.71

finishing

Wydad AC+0.00on par
MC Alger+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wydad AC ↓

MC Alger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Wydad AC or draw
88%
Wydad AC or MC Alger
73%
Draw or MC Alger
38%

Winning margin

Wydad AC wins by 2+
32%
MC Alger wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Wydad AC 1+ goals
76%
Wydad AC 2+ goals
42%
Wydad AC 3+ goals
17%
MC Alger 1+ goals
36%
MC Alger 2+ goals
8%
MC Alger 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Wydad AC (draw refunded)
84%
MC Alger (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wydad AC at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.43 · 28 matches

MC Alger away — creates 0.47, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wydad AC attack 2.14 + MC Alger defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.43

MC Alger attack 0.47 + Wydad AC defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Wydad AC scores more
62%
level
27%
MC Alger scores more
12%

Wydad AC at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Wydad AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
W. El KartiWydad ACWydad AC · M
7.7

Match Events

29'
Nabil Lamara
59'
Chamseddine Harrag
66'
M. Benaldjia← S. Frioui
66'
A. Bourdim← I. Diomande
72'
Muaid Ellafi
83'
Toufik Addadi
87'
C. Comara← Muaid Ellafi
87'
S. Msuva← A. Hassouni
87'
S. Abdellaoui← T. Addadi
89'
Ahmed Boutagga
90'
Ahmed Boutagga
90'
Abdenour Belkheir
90+4'
B. Gaddarine← M. Ounajem
90+1'
B. Dahlal← N. Lamara
90+2'
W. El Karti↳ M. Ounajem

Possession

60%Wydad

Shots

17Wydad

Pass accuracy

55%Wydad

Statistics

WydadMC
Overview
60%Possession40%
17Total Shots4
3Corners2
15Fouls18
Shots
17Total Shots4
5On Target1
10Off Target3
2Blocked0
10Inside Box1
7Outside Box3
Passing
60%Possession40%
462Total Passes301
349Accurate Passes189
76%Pass Accuracy63%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
15Fouls18
1Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards2
1Offsides5

Match Recap: Wydad AC vs MC Alger

Wydad AC beat MC Alger 1-0 in CAF Champions League on May 22, 2021.

Goals: W. El Karti (90+2').

Wydad AC controlled possession (60%) and registered 17 shots to 4.

The match was played at Stade Mohamed V in Casablanca.