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Wydad AC vs Maghreb Fès — Botola Pro 2025

Wydad AC
Wydad AC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Maghreb Fès
Maghreb Fès
1/11/2024Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 12Stade El Bachir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Wydad AC48%
×Draw27%
Maghreb Fès25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wydad AC
1.40
Maghreb Fès
0.92

Wydad AC creates 52% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 90 away

creates per match

Wydad AC
1.79
Maghreb Fès
0.99

allows per match

Wydad AC
0.84
Maghreb Fès
1.01

finishing

Wydad AC+0.00on par
Maghreb Fès+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wydad AC ↓

Maghreb Fès →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Wydad AC or draw
75%
Wydad AC or Maghreb Fès
73%
Draw or Maghreb Fès
52%

Winning margin

Wydad AC wins by 2+
23%
Maghreb Fès wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Wydad AC 1+ goals
75%
Wydad AC 2+ goals
41%
Wydad AC 3+ goals
17%
Maghreb Fès 1+ goals
60%
Maghreb Fès 2+ goals
23%
Maghreb Fès 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Wydad AC (draw refunded)
66%
Maghreb Fès (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wydad AC at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.84 · 120 matches

Maghreb Fès away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.01 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wydad AC attack 1.79 + Maghreb Fès defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.40

Maghreb Fès attack 0.99 + Wydad AC defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Wydad AC scores more
48%
level
27%
Maghreb Fès scores more
25%

Wydad AC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Wydad AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: Wydad AC 1–1 Maghreb Fès

Wydad AC and Maghreb Fès drew 1-1 in Botola Pro on January 11, 2024.

The match was played at Stade El Bachir in Mohammédia.