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Wydad AC vs Horoya — CAF Champions League 2019

Wydad AC
Wydad AC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Horoya
Horoya
3/6/2021CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Group C - 3Stade Mohamed V

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Wydad AC72%
×Draw20%
Horoya8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wydad AC
1.87
Horoya
0.45

Wydad AC creates 316% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 17 away

creates per match

Wydad AC
2.14
Horoya
0.47

allows per match

Wydad AC
0.43
Horoya
1.59

finishing

Wydad AC+0.00on par
Horoya+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wydad AC ↓

Horoya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Wydad AC or draw
92%
Wydad AC or Horoya
80%
Draw or Horoya
28%

Winning margin

Wydad AC wins by 2+
44%
Horoya wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Wydad AC 1+ goals
85%
Wydad AC 2+ goals
56%
Wydad AC 3+ goals
29%
Horoya 1+ goals
36%
Horoya 2+ goals
8%
Horoya 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Wydad AC (draw refunded)
90%
Horoya (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wydad AC at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.43 · 28 matches

Horoya away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wydad AC attack 2.14 + Horoya defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.87

Horoya attack 0.47 + Wydad AC defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Wydad AC scores more
72%
level
20%
Horoya scores more
8%

Wydad AC at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Wydad AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CAF Champions League: Wydad AC 2–0 Horoya

Wydad AC beat Horoya 2-0 in CAF Champions League on March 6, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Mohamed V in Casablanca.