Wydad AC 0–1 Galaxy: Result & Stats

Wydad AC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Galaxy

T. Sesinyi 33'

11/25/2023

CAF Champions League · Group B - 1Stade de Marrakech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Wydad AC74%

×Draw17%

Galaxy8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wydad ACExpected goals in this matchGalaxy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

0.57

Wydad AC

2.17

Galaxy

0.57

Wydad AC creates 281% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 14 away

2.14

creates per match

0.71

0.43

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Wydad AC

2.14

Galaxy

0.71

allows per match

Wydad AC

0.43

Galaxy

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wydad AC+0.00on par

Galaxy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wydad AC ↓

Galaxy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Wydad AC or draw

92%

Wydad AC or Galaxy

83%

Draw or Galaxy

26%

Winning margin

Wydad AC wins by 2+

49%

Galaxy wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Wydad AC 1+ goals

89%

Wydad AC 2+ goals

64%

Wydad AC 3+ goals

36%

Galaxy 1+ goals

43%

Galaxy 2+ goals

11%

Galaxy 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Wydad AC (draw refunded)

90%

Galaxy (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wydad AC at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.43 · 28 matches

Galaxy away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wydad AC attack 2.14 + Galaxy defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.17

Galaxy attack 0.71 + Wydad AC defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Wydad AC scores more

74%

level

17%

Galaxy scores more

8%

Wydad AC at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Wydad AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

G. Phoko

Galaxy · G

10.0

Match Events

31'

Thabang Sesinyi

31'

Moagi Sechele

33'

T. Sesinyi

46'

S. Ahannach← A. Haimoud

46'

B. Sambou← C. El Bahri

46'

F. Thulare← O. More

65'

Hamdou El Houni← H. Boussefiane

69'

W. Rudath← T. Ramatlapeng

74'

G. Moyo← G. Baruti

74'

C. Molefe← D. Msendami

75'

M. Ounajem← A. Farhane

75'

S. Bouhra← M. Lahtimi

78'

Zakaria Draoui

84'

C. Dube← T. Sesinyi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WydadGalaxy

Overview

80%Possession20%

22Total Shots4

12Corners1

8Fouls11

Shots

22Total Shots4

9On Target2

10Off Target2

3Blocked0

14Inside Box1

8Outside Box3

Passing

80%Possession20%

622Total Passes172

558Accurate Passes91

90%Pass Accuracy53%

Goalkeeping

1Saves9

Discipline

8Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

5Offsides3