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Wydad AC vs FUS Rabat — Cup 2020

Wydad AC
Wydad AC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FUS Rabat
FUS Rabat
M. Moufid 58'
3/28/2025CupCup · 16th FinalsStade Larbi Zaouli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Wydad AC30%
×Draw27%
FUS Rabat42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wydad AC
1.08
FUS Rabat
1.33

FUS Rabat creates 23% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Wydad AC
1.67
FUS Rabat
2.00

allows per match

Wydad AC
0.67
FUS Rabat
0.50

finishing

Wydad AC+0.00on par
FUS Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wydad AC ↓

FUS Rabat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Wydad AC or draw
58%
Wydad AC or FUS Rabat
73%
Draw or FUS Rabat
70%

Winning margin

Wydad AC wins by 2+
12%
FUS Rabat wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Wydad AC 1+ goals
66%
Wydad AC 2+ goals
29%
Wydad AC 3+ goals
10%
FUS Rabat 1+ goals
74%
FUS Rabat 2+ goals
38%
FUS Rabat 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Wydad AC (draw refunded)
42%
FUS Rabat (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wydad AC at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

FUS Rabat away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wydad AC attack 1.67 + FUS Rabat defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.08

FUS Rabat attack 2.00 + Wydad AC defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Wydad AC scores more
30%
level
27%
FUS Rabat scores more
42%

FUS Rabat at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FUS Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'
M. Moufid

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wydad AC vs FUS Rabat

Wydad AC beat FUS Rabat 1-0 in Cup on March 28, 2025.

Goals: M. Moufid (58').

The match was played at Stade Larbi Zaouli in Casablanca.