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Wydad AC vs FUS Rabat — Cup 2020

Wydad AC
Wydad ACadvanced
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FUS Rabat
FUS Rabat
A. El Hassouni 120+5' (pen)
J. Daoudi 120+4' (pen)
J. Tsoumou 120+3' (pen)
Y. Attiat-Allal 120+2' (pen)
Y. Jabrane 120+1' (pen)
K. Benarif 120+5' (pen)
Y. Limouri 120+4' (pen)
H. Kameni 120+3' (pen)
E. M. Moubarik 120+2' (pen)
7/20/2022CupCup · Semi-finalsComplexe Sportif de Fès

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Wydad AC30%
×Draw27%
FUS Rabat42%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wydad AC
1.08
FUS Rabat
1.33

FUS Rabat creates 23% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Wydad AC
1.67
FUS Rabat
2.00

allows per match

Wydad AC
0.67
FUS Rabat
0.50

finishing

Wydad AC+0.00on par
FUS Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wydad AC ↓

FUS Rabat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Wydad AC or draw
58%
Wydad AC or FUS Rabat
73%
Draw or FUS Rabat
70%

Winning margin

Wydad AC wins by 2+
12%
FUS Rabat wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Wydad AC 1+ goals
66%
Wydad AC 2+ goals
29%
Wydad AC 3+ goals
10%
FUS Rabat 1+ goals
74%
FUS Rabat 2+ goals
38%
FUS Rabat 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Wydad AC (draw refunded)
42%
FUS Rabat (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wydad AC at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

FUS Rabat away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wydad AC attack 1.67 + FUS Rabat defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.08

FUS Rabat attack 2.00 + Wydad AC defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Wydad AC scores more
30%
level
27%
FUS Rabat scores more
42%

FUS Rabat at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FUS Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

120+1'
O. RaouiMissed penalty
120+1'
Y. JabranePenalty
120+2'
E. M. MoubarikPenalty
120+2'
Y. Attiat-AllalPenalty
120+3'
H. KameniPenalty
120+3'
J. TsoumouPenalty
120+4'
Y. LimouriPenalty
120+4'
J. DaoudiPenalty
120+5'
K. BenarifPenalty
120+5'
A. El HassouniPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Wydad AC 0–0 FUS Rabat

Wydad AC and FUS Rabat drew 0-0 in Cup on July 20, 2022.

Goals: Y. Jabrane (120+1' pen), E. M. Moubarik (120+2' pen), Y. Attiat-Allal (120+2' pen), H. Kameni (120+3' pen), J. Tsoumou (120+3' pen), Y. Limouri (120+4' pen), J. Daoudi (120+4' pen), K. Benarif (120+5' pen), A. El Hassouni (120+5' pen).

The match was played at Complexe Sportif de Fès in Fès.