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Wydad AC vs Chabab Mohammédia — Cup 2020

Wydad AC
Wydad ACadvanced
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Chabab Mohammédia
Chabab Mohammédia
J. Daoudi 82'
A. El Hassouni 67', 30'
I. Moutaraji 74'
O. Lamlioui 61' (pen)
4/9/2022CupCup · Round of 16Stade Mohamed V

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Wydad AC65%
×Draw21%
Chabab Mohammédia15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wydad AC
2.00
Chabab Mohammédia
0.83

Wydad AC creates 141% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Wydad AC
1.67
Chabab Mohammédia
1.00

allows per match

Wydad AC
0.67
Chabab Mohammédia
2.33

finishing

Wydad AC+0.00on par
Chabab Mohammédia+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wydad AC ↓

Chabab Mohammédia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Wydad AC or draw
85%
Wydad AC or Chabab Mohammédia
79%
Draw or Chabab Mohammédia
35%

Winning margin

Wydad AC wins by 2+
40%
Chabab Mohammédia wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Wydad AC 1+ goals
86%
Wydad AC 2+ goals
59%
Wydad AC 3+ goals
32%
Chabab Mohammédia 1+ goals
56%
Chabab Mohammédia 2+ goals
20%
Chabab Mohammédia 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Wydad AC (draw refunded)
81%
Chabab Mohammédia (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wydad AC at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Chabab Mohammédia away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wydad AC attack 1.67 + Chabab Mohammédia defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.00

Chabab Mohammédia attack 1.00 + Wydad AC defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Wydad AC scores more
65%
level
21%
Chabab Mohammédia scores more
15%

Wydad AC at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Wydad AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
A. El Hassouni
61'
O. LamliouiPenalty
67'
A. El Hassouni
74'
I. Moutaraji
82'
J. Daoudi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wydad AC vs Chabab Mohammédia

Wydad AC beat Chabab Mohammédia 3-2 in Cup on April 9, 2022.

Goals: A. El Hassouni (30', 67'), O. Lamlioui (61' pen), I. Moutaraji (74'), J. Daoudi (82').

The match was played at Stade Mohamed V in Casablanca.