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Chabab Mohammédia vs Wydad AC — Botola Pro 2025

Chabab Mohammédia
Chabab Mohammédia
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Wydad AC
Wydad AC
A. Ennakhli 45+3'
H. Bahaj 31'
A. El Amloud 68'
B. Sambou 40'
A. Zola 14'
9/3/2023Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 2Stade El Bachir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Chabab Mohammédia25%
×Draw27%
Wydad AC48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chabab Mohammédia
0.92
Wydad AC
1.38

Wydad AC creates 50% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 117 away

creates per match

Chabab Mohammédia
0.87
Wydad AC
1.31

allows per match

Chabab Mohammédia
1.44
Wydad AC
0.97

finishing

Chabab Mohammédia+0.00on par
Wydad AC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab Mohammédia ↓

Wydad AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Chabab Mohammédia or draw
52%
Chabab Mohammédia or Wydad AC
73%
Draw or Wydad AC
75%

Winning margin

Chabab Mohammédia wins by 2+
9%
Wydad AC wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Chabab Mohammédia 1+ goals
60%
Chabab Mohammédia 2+ goals
23%
Chabab Mohammédia 3+ goals
7%
Wydad AC 1+ goals
75%
Wydad AC 2+ goals
40%
Wydad AC 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Chabab Mohammédia (draw refunded)
35%
Wydad AC (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab Mohammédia at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.44 · 75 matches

Wydad AC away — creates 1.31, concedes 0.97 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab Mohammédia attack 0.87 + Wydad AC defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.92

Wydad AC attack 1.31 + Chabab Mohammédia defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Chabab Mohammédia scores more
25%
level
27%
Wydad AC scores more
48%

Wydad AC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Wydad AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
A. Zola
31'
H. Bahaj
40'
B. Sambou
42'
Ayoub Boucheta
45+3'
A. Ennakhli
46'
H. Boussefiane← M. Lahtimi
61'
K. Lagrouch← A. Balouchy
65'
S. Bouhra← Hamdou El Houni
68'
A. El Amloud
75'
A. Adila← M. Afallah
75'
N. Oussama← I. Mihrab
83'
A. Serrhat← A. Haimoud
83'
C. El Bahri← B. Sambou
85'
Saifeddine Bouhra
90+3'
Z. Fathi← I. Benktib

Statistics

ChababWydad
Overview
3Corners5
Discipline
1Yellow Cards1

Botola Pro: Chabab Mohammédia 2–3 Wydad AC

Wydad AC beat Chabab Mohammédia 3-2 in Botola Pro on September 3, 2023.

Goals: A. Zola (14'), H. Bahaj (31'), B. Sambou (40'), A. Ennakhli (45+3'), A. El Amloud (68').

The match was played at Stade El Bachir in Mohammédia.