Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Wycombe vs Wrexham — League One 2018

Wycombe
Wycombe
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Wrexham
Wrexham
S. Smith 78'
3/15/2025League OneLeague One · Round 37Adams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Wycombe38%
×Draw28%
Wrexham34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wycombe
1.18
Wrexham
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 158 home / 23 away

creates per match

Wycombe
1.53
Wrexham
1.13

allows per match

Wycombe
1.08
Wrexham
0.83

finishing

Wycombe+0.00on par
Wrexham+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Wrexham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw
66%
Wycombe or Wrexham
72%
Draw or Wrexham
62%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+
16%
Wrexham wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals
69%
Wycombe 2+ goals
33%
Wycombe 3+ goals
12%
Wrexham 1+ goals
67%
Wrexham 2+ goals
30%
Wrexham 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)
53%
Wrexham (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.08 · 158 matches

Wrexham away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.83 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 1.53 + Wrexham defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.18

Wrexham attack 1.13 + Wycombe defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Wycombe scores more
38%
level
28%
Wrexham scores more
34%

Wycombe at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
E. O'ConnellWrexhamWrexham · D
7.5

Match Events

37'
Oliver Rathbone
70'
S. Fletcher← J. Rodríguez
72'
J. Berry-McNally← F. Onyedinma
74'
E. Lee← O. Rathbone
78'
S. Smith↳ S. Fletcher
85'
S. Vokes← G. McCleary
85'
M. Westergaard← A. Reach
90+5'
Thomas O'Connor
90+4'
T. O'Connor← S. Smith

Possession

51%Wycombe

Shots

10Wycombe

Pass accuracy

52%Wycombe

Statistics

WycombeWrexham
Overview
51%Possession49%
10Total Shots5
2Corners2
16Fouls16
Shots
10Total Shots5
3On Target2
3Off Target2
4Blocked1
7Inside Box4
3Outside Box1
Passing
51%Possession49%
328Total Passes320
205Accurate Passes190
63%Pass Accuracy59%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
16Fouls16
0Yellow Cards2
1Offsides3

League One: Wycombe 0–1 Wrexham

Wrexham beat Wycombe 1-0 in League One on March 15, 2025.

Goals: S. Smith (78').

Wycombe controlled possession (51%) and registered 10 shots to 5.

The match was played at Adams Park in High Wycombe, Buckinghamshire.