Wycombe 1–0 Walsall: Result & Stats | League One

Wycombe

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Walsall

J. McCarthy 54'

4/22/2019

League One · Round 44Adams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Wycombe48%

×Draw26%

Walsall26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WycombeExpected goals in this matchWalsall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.02

Wycombe

1.49

Walsall

1.02

Wycombe creates 46% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 31 away

1.53

creates per match

0.97

1.08

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Wycombe

1.53

Walsall

0.97

allows per match

Wycombe

1.08

Walsall

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wycombe+0.00on par

Walsall+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Walsall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw

74%

Wycombe or Walsall

74%

Draw or Walsall

52%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+

24%

Walsall wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals

77%

Wycombe 2+ goals

44%

Wycombe 3+ goals

19%

Walsall 1+ goals

64%

Walsall 2+ goals

27%

Walsall 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)

65%

Walsall (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.08 · 158 matches

Walsall away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.45 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 1.53 + Walsall defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.49

Walsall attack 0.97 + Wycombe defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Wycombe scores more

48%

level

26%

Walsall scores more

26%

Wycombe at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

Connor Johnson

54'

J. McCarthy

60'

N. Tyson← N. Freeman

61'

M. Bloomfield← D. Gape

62'

A. Cook← A. Oteh

70'

Matt Bloomfield

70'

Z. Ismail← C. Norman

73'

C. Taylor← L. Leahy

85'

P. Cowan-Hall← S. Kashket

90'

Scott Laird

Wycombe

Walsall

13

34

2

6

3

▼

Leahy

35

Scarr

28

▼

20

30

29

36

▼

1

2

6

16

26

⚽

McCarthy

18

Thompson

4

▼

Gape

22

▼

Freeman

20

Akinfenwa

25

Samuel

11

▼

Kashket

Manager: G. Ainsworth

60'▲N. Tyson←▼N. Freeman

61'▲M. Bloomfield←▼D. Gape

85'▲P. Cowan-Hall←▼S. Kashket

Wycombe substitutes

23Tyson10Bloomfield12Cowan-Hall3Jacobson5Stewart8Bean30Ma-Kalambay

Manager: M. O'Connor

62'▲A. Cook←▼A. Oteh

70'▲Z. Ismail←▼C. Norman

73'▲C. Taylor←▼L. Leahy

Walsall substitutes

9Cook10Ismail38Taylor1Roberts4Dobson5Guthrie15Kinsella