Wycombe 0–2 Swansea: Result & Stats | Championship

Wycombe

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Swansea

J. Lowe 23'

A. Ayew 13'

9/26/2020

Championship · Round 3Adams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Wycombe33%

×Draw29%

Swansea39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WycombeExpected goals in this matchSwansea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.19

Wycombe

1.07

Swansea

1.19

Swansea creates 11% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 180 away

0.74

creates per match

1.17

1.22

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Wycombe

0.74

Swansea

1.17

allows per match

Wycombe

1.22

Swansea

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wycombe+0.00on par

Swansea+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Swansea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw

61%

Wycombe or Swansea

71%

Draw or Swansea

67%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+

13%

Swansea wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals

66%

Wycombe 2+ goals

29%

Wycombe 3+ goals

9%

Swansea 1+ goals

70%

Swansea 2+ goals

33%

Swansea 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)

46%

Swansea (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 0.74, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

Swansea away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.41 · 180 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 0.74 + Swansea defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.07

Swansea attack 1.17 + Wycombe defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Wycombe scores more

33%

level

29%

Swansea scores more

39%

Swansea at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Swansea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

J. Bidwell

Swansea · M

8.2

Match Events

11'

Fred Onyedinma

13'

A. Ayew↳ J. Bidwell

23'

J. Lowe↳ A. Ayew

69'

D. Horgan← F. Onyedinma

76'

J. Parker← M. Bloomfield

82'

L. Cullen← J. Lowe

82'

J. Fulton← M. Gibbs-White

83'

S. Kashket← D. Wheeler

85'

Joshua Parker

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WycombeSwansea

Overview

36%Possession64%

8Total Shots17

5Corners7

9Fouls8

Shots

8Total Shots17

2On Target6

6Off Target6

0Blocked5

3Inside Box16

5Outside Box1

Passing

36%Possession64%

273Total Passes505

187Accurate Passes413

68%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls8

2Yellow Cards0