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Wycombe vs Plymouth — League One 2018

Wycombe
Wycombe
Preview
14:00
Plymouth
Plymouth
8/22/2026League OneLeague One · Round 2Adams Park
Big match
39%
Plymouth
model favours
37%24%39%

Plymouth are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Wycombe37%
×Draw24%
Plymouth39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wycombe
1.56
Plymouth
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 13 away

creates per match

Wycombe
1.91
Plymouth
2.00

allows per match

Wycombe
1.21
Plymouth
1.22

finishing

Wycombe-0.01on par
Plymouth-0.38scores less

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Plymouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw
61%
Wycombe or Plymouth
76%
Draw or Plymouth
63%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+
18%
Plymouth wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals
79%
Wycombe 2+ goals
46%
Wycombe 3+ goals
21%
Plymouth 1+ goals
80%
Plymouth 2+ goals
47%
Plymouth 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)
49%
Plymouth (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.21 · 10 matches

Plymouth away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.22 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 1.91 + Plymouth defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.56

Plymouth attack 2.00 + Wycombe defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Wycombe scores more
37%
level
24%
Plymouth scores more
39%

Plymouth at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Plymouth have scored in 15 games running
  • Plymouth have won 5 in a row
  • Plymouth score first in only 28% of matches
  • Wycombe win just 26% against the top half (vs 57% against the bottom)
  • Wycombe fall short of their xG (1.4 vs 1.8 expected)
  • 72% of Plymouth’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Wycombe
Attack-heavy
Plymouth
Attack-heavy
48%Possession49%
67%Pass accuracy68%
12.3Shots13.4
1.81xGBiggest gap2.12
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
WycombePlymouth

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

3
Wycombe
2
Draws
3
Plymouth
Avg goals: 1.6BTTS: 25%
1–10–10–10–12–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Wycombe
LLWWL
Plymouth
WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Wycombe host Plymouth

August 22, 2026: Wycombe take on Plymouth in League One. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Wycombe host Plymouth at Adams Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.