Plymouth 1–0 Wycombe: Result & Stats | League One

Plymouth

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Wycombe

D. Scarr 33'

12/29/2022

League One · Round 24Home Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Plymouth50%

×Draw22%

Wycombe29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlymouthExpected goals in this matchWycombe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.48

Plymouth

2.01

Wycombe

1.48

Plymouth creates 36% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

2.28

creates per match

1.72

1.25

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Plymouth

2.28

Wycombe

1.72

allows per match

Plymouth

1.25

Wycombe

1.74

-0.58scores less than expected

finishing

-0.58scores less than expected

finishing

Plymouth-0.58scores less

Wycombe-0.58scores less

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

Wycombe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw

71%

Plymouth or Wycombe

78%

Draw or Wycombe

50%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+

29%

Wycombe wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals

87%

Plymouth 2+ goals

59%

Plymouth 3+ goals

32%

Wycombe 1+ goals

77%

Wycombe 2+ goals

43%

Wycombe 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)

64%

Wycombe (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.25 · 10 matches

Wycombe away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.74 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 2.28 + Wycombe defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 2.01

Wycombe attack 1.72 + Plymouth defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Plymouth scores more

50%

level

22%

Wycombe scores more

29%

Plymouth at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

D. Scarr

Plymouth · D

7.9

Match Events

24'

Nigel Cello Lonwijk

29'

Christian Forino Joseph

33'

D. Scarr↳ A. Randell

65'

N. Ennis← S. Cosgrove

70'

A. Mehmeti← D. Horgan

71'

S. Vokes← B. Hanlan

71'

T. De Barr← Ali Al Hamadi

78'

D. Wheeler← S. Kaikai

79'

Curtis Thompson

81'

J. Grimmer← J. McCarthy

84'

M. Butcher← D. Mayor

87'

J. Bolton← M. Whittaker

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PlymouthWycombe

Overview

53%Possession47%

16Total Shots15

11Corners3

12Fouls11

Shots

16Total Shots15

3On Target1

10Off Target6

3Blocked8

14Inside Box7

2Outside Box8

Passing

53%Possession47%

315Total Passes281

206Accurate Passes169

65%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2