Wycombe 1–0 Plymouth: Result & Stats | League One

Wycombe

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Plymouth

A. Akinfenwa 24'

1/26/2019

League One · Round 30Adams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Wycombe39%

×Draw24%

Plymouth38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WycombeExpected goals in this matchPlymouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.56

Wycombe

1.58

Plymouth

1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.94

creates per match

2.00

1.11

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Wycombe

1.94

Plymouth

2.00

allows per match

Wycombe

1.11

Plymouth

1.22

-0.02on par

finishing

-0.38scores less than expected

finishing

Wycombe-0.02on par

Plymouth-0.38scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Plymouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw

62%

Wycombe or Plymouth

76%

Draw or Plymouth

61%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+

19%

Plymouth wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals

79%

Wycombe 2+ goals

47%

Wycombe 3+ goals

21%

Plymouth 1+ goals

79%

Plymouth 2+ goals

46%

Plymouth 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)

51%

Plymouth (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.11 · 13 matches

Plymouth away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.22 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 1.94 + Plymouth defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.58

Plymouth attack 2.00 + Wycombe defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Wycombe scores more

39%

level

24%

Plymouth scores more

38%

Wycombe at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

A. Akinfenwa

36'

David Fox

45'

Joe Jacobson

69'

R. Taylor← D. Fox

71'

L. Bolton← M. Bloomfield

74'

A. Samuel← A. Akinfenwa

86'

L. Jephcott← Ruben Lameiras

87'

Ryan Edwards

90'

Freddie Ladapo

Wycombe

Plymouth

21

3

14

4

5

23

8

▼

Fox

10

Carey

7

Sarcevic

11

▼

19

1

2

6

3

26

10

▼

18

4

22

20

⚽

▼

Akinfenwa

12

Cowan-Hal

Manager: G. Ainsworth

71'▲L. Bolton←▼M. Bloomfield

74'▲A. Samuel←▼A. Akinfenwa

Wycombe substitutes

17Bolton25Samuel5Stewart8Bean11Kashket13Yates23Tyson

Manager: D. Adams

69'▲R. Taylor←▼D. Fox

86'▲L. Jephcott←▼Ruben Lameiras

Plymouth substitutes

9Taylor35Jephcott1Macey2Riley17Ainsworth25Wootton26Threlkeld