Wycombe 1–1 Morecambe: Result & Stats | League One

Wycombe

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Morecambe

C. Forino-Joseph 20'

A. Mayor 82'

10/29/2022

League One · Round 17Adams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Wycombe57%

×Draw23%

Morecambe20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WycombeExpected goals in this matchMorecambe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

0.99

Wycombe

1.85

Morecambe

0.99

Wycombe creates 87% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 46 away

1.53

creates per match

0.89

1.08

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Wycombe

1.53

Morecambe

0.89

allows per match

Wycombe

1.08

Morecambe

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wycombe+0.00on par

Morecambe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Morecambe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw

80%

Wycombe or Morecambe

77%

Draw or Morecambe

43%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+

33%

Morecambe wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals

84%

Wycombe 2+ goals

55%

Wycombe 3+ goals

28%

Morecambe 1+ goals

63%

Morecambe 2+ goals

26%

Morecambe 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)

74%

Morecambe (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.08 · 158 matches

Morecambe away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 1.53 + Morecambe defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.85

Morecambe attack 0.89 + Wycombe defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Wycombe scores more

57%

level

23%

Morecambe scores more

20%

Wycombe at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

J. Jacobson

Wycombe · D

7.9

Match Events

20'

C. Forino-Joseph↳ G. McCleary

30'

Jensen Weir

47'

Liam Gibson

52'

Donald Love

62'

C. Stockton← C. Watts

74'

A. Mayor← K. Phillips

76'

B. Hanlan← G. McCleary

79'

Alfie Mawson

81'

S. McLoughlin← J. Weir

82'

Max Stryjek

82'

A. Mayor

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WycombeMorecambe

Overview

59%Possession41%

14Total Shots16

13Corners3

11Fouls7

Shots

14Total Shots16

4On Target5

6Off Target5

4Blocked6

8Inside Box10

6Outside Box6

Passing

59%Possession41%

373Total Passes280

269Accurate Passes163

72%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls7

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0