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Wycombe vs Milton Keynes Dons — League One 2018

Wycombe
Wycombe
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Milton Keynes Dons
Milton Keynes Dons
1/29/2022League OneLeague One · Round 30Adams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Wycombe44%
×Draw26%
Milton Keynes Dons30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wycombe
1.46
Milton Keynes Dons
1.16

Wycombe creates 26% more chances

Season form · 159 home / 95 away

creates per match

Wycombe
1.51
Milton Keynes Dons
1.27

allows per match

Wycombe
1.05
Milton Keynes Dons
1.40

finishing

Wycombe+0.00on par
Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Milton Keynes Dons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw
70%
Wycombe or Milton Keynes Dons
74%
Draw or Milton Keynes Dons
56%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+
21%
Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals
77%
Wycombe 2+ goals
43%
Wycombe 3+ goals
18%
Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals
69%
Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals
32%
Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)
59%
Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.05 · 159 matches

Milton Keynes Dons away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.40 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 1.51 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.46

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.27 + Wycombe defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Wycombe scores more
44%
level
26%
Milton Keynes Dons scores more
30%

Wycombe at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Wycombe 0–1 Milton Keynes Dons

Milton Keynes Dons beat Wycombe 1-0 in League One on January 29, 2022.

The match was played at Adams Park in High Wycombe, Buckinghamshire.