Milton Keynes Dons 0–1 Wycombe: Result & Stats

Milton Keynes Dons

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Wycombe

N. Freeman 40'

10/22/2022

League One · Round 16Stadium mk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Milton Keynes Dons38%

×Draw27%

Wycombe36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Milton Keynes DonsExpected goals in this matchWycombe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.26

Milton Keynes Dons

1.30

Wycombe

1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 55 away

1.27

creates per match

1.38

1.14

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Milton Keynes Dons

1.27

Wycombe

1.38

allows per match

Milton Keynes Dons

1.14

Wycombe

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Wycombe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milton Keynes Dons ↓

Wycombe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Milton Keynes Dons or draw

64%

Milton Keynes Dons or Wycombe

73%

Draw or Wycombe

62%

Winning margin

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

17%

Wycombe wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

73%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

37%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

14%

Wycombe 1+ goals

72%

Wycombe 2+ goals

36%

Wycombe 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

51%

Wycombe (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milton Keynes Dons at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

Wycombe away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.33 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.27 + Wycombe defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.30

Wycombe attack 1.38 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

38%

level

27%

Wycombe scores more

36%

Milton Keynes Dons at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

M. Stryjek

Wycombe · G

8.5

Match Events

18'

Daniel Harvie

40'

N. Freeman

61'

Joe Jacobson

68'

M. Dennis← N. Holland

82'

M. Smith← J. McEachran

84'

D. Bughail-Mellor← A. Mehmeti

85'

B. Hanlan← S. Vokes

90'

J. Ogunfaolu-Kayode← L. Barry

90+3'

D. Wheeler← L. Wing

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MiltonWycombe

Overview

63%Possession37%

14Total Shots11

6Corners2

8Fouls9

Shots

14Total Shots11

7On Target4

1Off Target6

6Blocked1

9Inside Box9

5Outside Box2

Passing

63%Possession37%

434Total Passes248

310Accurate Passes135

71%Pass Accuracy54%

Goalkeeping

3Saves7

Discipline

8Fouls9

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides6