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Wycombe vs Millwall — Championship 2018

Wycombe
Wycombe
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Millwall
Millwall
S. Kashket 9'
R. Leonard 63'
J. Wallace 48' (pen)
10/17/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 5Adams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Wycombe31%
×Draw30%
Millwall39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wycombe
0.98
Millwall
1.13

Millwall creates 15% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 189 away

creates per match

Wycombe
0.74
Millwall
1.04

allows per match

Wycombe
1.22
Millwall
1.23

finishing

Wycombe+0.00on par
Millwall+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Millwall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw
61%
Wycombe or Millwall
70%
Draw or Millwall
69%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+
11%
Millwall wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals
62%
Wycombe 2+ goals
26%
Wycombe 3+ goals
8%
Millwall 1+ goals
68%
Millwall 2+ goals
31%
Millwall 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)
45%
Millwall (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 0.74, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.23 · 189 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 0.74 + Millwall defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.98

Millwall attack 1.04 + Wycombe defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Wycombe scores more
31%
level
30%
Millwall scores more
39%

Millwall at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
J. WallaceMillwallMillwall · M
8.2

Match Events

9'
S. Kashket
48'
J. WallacePenalty
63'
R. Leonard↳ M. Smith
64'
A. Akinfenwa← A. Samuel
66'
D. Horgan← F. Onyedinma
75'
Josh Knight
79'
A. Mehmeti← D. Adeniran
82'
B. Thompson← T. Bradshaw
90+2'
S. Ferguson← C. Mahoney
90+5'
A. Pearce← M. Smith

Possession

40%Wycombe

Shots

9Wycombe

Pass accuracy

42%Wycombe

Statistics

WycombeMillwall
Overview
40%Possession60%
9Total Shots18
1Corners2
17Fouls15
Shots
9Total Shots18
3On Target6
4Off Target10
2Blocked2
6Inside Box15
3Outside Box3
Passing
40%Possession60%
299Total Passes445
150Accurate Passes303
50%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
17Fouls15
1Yellow Cards0
1Offsides2

Championship: Wycombe 1–2 Millwall

Millwall beat Wycombe 2-1 in Championship on October 17, 2020.

Goals: S. Kashket (9'), J. Wallace (48' pen), R. Leonard (63').

Millwall controlled possession (60%) and registered 18 shots to 9.

The match was played at Adams Park in High Wycombe, Buckinghamshire.